Monday, September 24, 2012

A 400-year advantage

In "Google Maps announces a 400-year advantage over Apple Maps," blogger Mike Dobson writes
If you go back over this blog and follow my recounting of the history of Google's attempts at developing a quality mapping service, you will notice that they initially tried to automate the entire process and failed miserably, as has Apple. Google learned that you cannot take the human out of the equation. While the mathematics of mapping appear relatively straight forward, I can assure you that if you take the informed human observer who possess local and cartographic knowledge out of the equation that you will produce...a failed system (emphasis added).
Which is what happens when you rely on technology or processes. Yes, of course you can automate many things, and that has been the source of much of the incredible improvement in the economic well-being of society since the industrial age began. But not blindly.

All of the great failures, from Pearl Harbor*, to Xerox's failed attempt to enter the computer market, to the Edsel, to the Betamax, to Polaroid, to name just a few, relied on technology and systems, and ignored the element of human observation and judgment - the signals were there.

Can Apple catch up? Possibly. Will need to change its mental model, the source of almost all failures? Yes.

Which is what finally happened to the American auto industry. The elements of lean production which propelled Toyota to world leadership, were developed in the early 1960s. The concepts were available and known by US industry executives who ignored and, worse, disparaged them. Adept at Failing at Strategy, it was only when the industry was brought to its knees, and a generation of executives had retired, could a new mental model, born out of crisis, emerge.
_____

* "Pearl Harbor - why did the US navy fail to detect anytime in advance the movement of the most powerful fleet in history? It was not as if Japan's blue water fleet was a surprise - in 1905 it destroyed the Russian Pacific fleet; nor were Japan's expansionist intentions a secret - it invaded Manchuria in 1931. Given this, "intelligence officers could perhaps have foreseen the attack if the US, years before, had...flown regular aerial reconnaissance of the the Japanese navy, put intercept units aboard ships sailing close to Japan...or recruited a network of marine observers to report on ship movements." - Early warning, or you can't find what you're not looking for.






No comments: