Tuesday, January 1, 2013

The stone age didn't end because of a shortage of stones*...

...and the oil age won't end because of a shortage of oil. It will end because of the human race's endless ability to innovate.

At the dawn of 2013, I look optimistically to the future. The debt crisis will get resolved, the economy will pick up speed, companies will start hiring and people will get back to work, create more demand, and in turn more hiring... But it is to the longer term that I am the most optimistic.

I spent Sunday afternoon reading up on Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley's Top Ten Problems Facing Humanity Over the Next 50 Years, a list he developed in 2002 / 2003:
1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism & War
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
10. Population

The pessimists will focus on Smalley's Problems, noting, for example, that forecasts indicate we'll reach "peak oil" within perhaps 20 years and the population of the planet will soon reach 10 billion, straining resources beyond our capacity to deal with the consequences.

On the other hand, a paraphrasing optimist would note that "scarcity is the mother of invention." Just in energy alone, we're seeing new extraction technologies, advances in wind power, battery powered-cars like the Tesla (you REALLY should find a store and test drive one!) and even progress in solar energy - the US is projected to add 3,200 MW of solar power this year, enough to power 3.2 million homes.

We've seen what can happen as humanity has passed through great periods of innovation, driven by harnessing new forms of energy (steam, electricity, oil, nuclear); the industrial, electronics and internet revolutions; and are beginning to see the potential of advances in data and device connectivity.

What do you think? What will be the next great source of innovation? Share your thoughts.

Happy 2013!
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*Former Saudi oil minister Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani