How Good Are Your Marketplace Insight Capabilities?

Since posting Insight is Where the Game is Won and Lost, many have asked "how can we assess our insights capabilities to identify where to focus?" Building on both internal work I did in the early 2000s, and an article published independently by Herring and Leavitt in 2011,* here is a framework you can use to quickly evaluate your organization's insights capabilities. There are five dimensions to rate your organization on (directions at the bottom):

• Insights culture
• Sources used to generate the information base to help create insights
• Marketplace focus
• Personnel
• Early warning of emerging threats and opportunities

The organization's culture sets the tone for insights creation, which can address markets, customers, technology or competition. Initially reactive (Level 1), executives ask for data and task available personnel to gather information for a presentation or meeting, invariably sourced from easy-to-access published data, such as annual reports, existing market research or industry analyses. The initial focus is on traditional markets, customers, technology and competitors.

Soon, a frustrated executive or ambitious analyst determines that standardized profiles, newsletters and databases will improve organization awareness. Dedicated, often part-time individuals (becoming full-time as demand increases) standardize outputs, create delivery schedules and expand the fact base to include subscriptions to specialized industry publications, and start to focus on partnerships and alliances which impact growth and the ability to compete (Level 2).

Success begets more challenging questions, such as what does this data mean? how will the trends play out? and what emerging customers, technologies and competitors should we be concerned about? Improving capability requires teams of skilled analysts under a functional manager (Level 3). Since the answers are rarely contained in published data, analysts must incorporate validated opinion and observations from individuals who don't have the time to write it all down - customers, channel partners, R&D and sales personnel, their own executives, and industry observers and experts.

The expanding organizational knowledge base generates new requirements: what are the implications of these projections? what options do we have? what should we do about them? how might customers or competitors react? how feasible is a new technology? Mature organizations assign or recruit a senior leader to answer these, using increasingly sophisticated research and analysis techniques and a well-nurtured source network. And the organization expands its focus to better understand the interactions within the industry value chain and how these will play out (Level 4).

Finally, a radical shift occurs, from an emphasis on producing reports to facilitating dialog: the organization structures insights-driven strategic decision-making sessions (Level 5). Key executives interact directly with well-prepared internal and external experts, to determine how to best position the enterprise for future success. Topics might include identifying and evaluating the strategic risks of potential new initiatives, untapped sources of customer value, the next generation of customers, emerging competitive threats (frequently through business wargames) and new growth opportunities.

The importance of early warning. 

The organization's ability to avoid surprises - a major executive concern - increases with the sophistication of its insights capabilities. Fledgling operations frequently start by looking at any of a variety of "megatrends" (example here), "boiling the ocean" to try to find a something the organization can act on. They progress to tracking studies, targeted assessments of specific marketplace issues and systematic monitoring of the periphery (emerging customers, competitors and technologies). But real breakthroughs occur when organizations form heavyweight teams, consisting of both internal and external experts, to address critical emerging issues through innovation and new business models.

How good is your organization's insight capability? Identify where it is in each category, sum the associated levels, and divide by five. If it is:

• below 2.0, it is drowning, with little chance of a lifeline in the next round of budget cuts
• between 2.0 - 3.0, it is treading water, with increasing odds of getting a lifeline
• between 3.0 - 4.0, the shore is in sight, but beware of undercurrents
• above 4.0, the beachhead is secured and the insights function is capable of making a real difference

Now ask what will it take to improve? And, importantly, what will be the impact on the business?

* Herring, Jan and Judith Leavitt, "The Roadmap to a World-Class Intelligence Program," Competitive Intelligence, January - March, 2011 

You Can't Find What You're Not Looking For

Ask the right questions

Smoke detectors are programmed for early warning. But they don't detect CO2, equally as dangerous.

With a specific threat - or opportunity - identified, designing a system or capability to capture and process the relevant signals and issue an alert is pretty straightforward.

The challenge for companies is to articulate the potential business threat or opportunity. But in a dynamic marketplace, these are everywhere. Organizations simply can’t monitor every Bill and Dave or Steve and Steve in their garages or Jeff in his warehouse.

It is exacerbated when organizations obsess on collecting reams of customer data or developing in-depth competitor profiles, especially when these focus is on what the customers wanted or what the competitor did. The often-unstated assumption – the mindset – is that the future will be largely like the past and, circuitously, the historical facts support the prevailing view.

But there are no “facts” about the future.

Creating the necessary insight requires asking the right questions:

• How will new technologies and business value propositions impact our customers, products, services, and business growth?
• Which industries, customer segments and offerings categories offer the best likelihood of future business growth?
• Who are the most threatening traditional, emerging and potential competitors? Why?
• Where are the greatest long-term profit streams according to the capital markets?
• What is required for future competitive success?

How many organizations have good answers to these questions? How many have the leadership that asks them?

You can’t find what you’re not looking for.

Next: Creating Crises

"Surprise"

December 7, 1941

Nothing frustrates executives I speak with more than a crisis caused by surprise: a new competitor product or unexpected price cut, unexpected loss of a key bid or long-held account, or new technologies or shifts in buyer behavior that obsolete current offerings. And heads roll when these cause a miss in quarterly earnings or, worse, bankruptcy.

The question that always arises is how could we have avoided surprise?

Lack of knowledge is not the problem. “We now live in a world where knowledge transfer and information exchange are tremendously efficient, and where there are numerous organizations in the business of collecting and transferring best practices. So, there are fewer and smaller differences in what firms know than in their ability to act on that knowledge.”*

Said another way, surprise rarely occurs due to a lack of signals. Information on the Toyota Production System was available to the US auto industry for decades, and traditional retailers certainly had time to absorb intelligence on amazon.com’s business model well in advance of having to declare bankruptcy. In the military sphere, “an analysis of surprise attacks suggests that the intelligence community seldom fails to anticipate them owing to a lack of relevant information.” And a US Congressional Subcommittee that examined several critical US political crises pointed out that “in no case had lack of data been a major factor in the failure to anticipate the crisis.”**

Take Pearl Harbor – why did the US navy fail to detect anytime in advance the movement the most powerful fleet in history? It was not as if Japan’s blue water fleet was a surprise – in 1905 it destroyed the Russian Pacific fleet. Nor were Japan’s expansionist intentions a secret – it invaded Manchuria in 1931. And it’s not as if the US Pacific Fleet wasn't concerned about the Imperial Japanese Navy: it knew it was the only real threat to those intentions. Finally, beginning in early in 1941, there was a slew of signals that the Japanese navy was targeting Pearl Harbor.

Given this, “intelligence officers could perhaps have foreseen the attack if the US, years before, had…flown regular aerial reconnaissance of the Japanese navy, put intercept units aboard ships sailing close to Japan…or recruited a network of marine observers to report on ship movements.”***

Did the US Navy create its own surprise?

Next: Avoiding "Surprises"

*Pfeffer, Jeffrey and Robert Sutton, The Knowing-Doing Gap, Harvard Business School Press, 2000
**Kam, Ephraim, Surprise Attack, Harvard University Press, 1988
***Kahn, David, "The Intelligence Failure of Pearl Harbor, Foreign Affairs, 70, no. 5 (Winter 1991/1992)

Opportunity or Afterthought?

Support

How many great customer service calls can you recall? If you’re like me, you’re more likely to remember the endless prompts, being put on hold, or dealing with someone who can’t or won’t solve your problem.

How many trade shows or conferences have you returned from with a slew of unremarkable collateral? Admission: I don’t really collect a lot and mostly throw out what I do.

How many vendor capability presentations have caused you to take action? Or, as a consumer, how many unsolicited calls or emails have actually caused you to buy something? In my case, close to zero.

I once inherited an under-performing business development (cold calling) function. The sales team had hired a bright, engaging and outgoing young professional with the intent of qualifying leads and setting up sales meetings. But after six months and zero meetings, something had to change.

The reason soon became abundantly clear. This erstwhile and eager individual had received no training: not in the offering, not in the sales process and not in how to identify needs and nurture leads.

Six months completely wasted.

Support, or lack thereof, can make or break a customer relationship. Done well, and accounted for properly, it can pay for itself many times over. I willingly pay extra for a premium credit card because of the support I get – the company handles our inquiries with personnel whose sole purpose appears to make me a satisfied customer. And because of that, I almost invariably use that credit card for my purchases. Same with my bank: I maintain a high balance, initially to eliminate monthly fees, but more recently because it enables me to get through quickly to knowledgeable personnel who address my concerns promptly.

The subtitle of George Day’s must read book, The Market Driven Organization** says it all: your job is “Understanding, Attracting and Keeping Valuable Customers.”

This requires great support which, in turn, requires training.

Training is an opportunity, not an afterthought.

*Cartoon posted by Joel Leonard in a LinkedIn update
**Day, George, The Market-Driven Organization: Understanding, Attracting and Keeping Valuable Customers, Free Press, 2007

Know Your Enemies

Creating differentiation: how much do you know about your competition? 

“You don’t have to be the best, you just have to be better than your competitor.”*

Successful marketing executives know a lot. That's how they create differentiated value propositions.

But first, please don’t tell me you think competitive intelligence (CI) is espionage. I’m not naive – there have been far too many cases to pretend industrial espionage doesn't exist and some major countries are well known to engage in spying for their companies.

Ethical competitive intelligence has a long history, going back centuries. The first published mention dates from 1876, in an Institute of Civil Engineers discussion of carriage design. It gained popularity in the 1980s following the publication of Michael Porter’s Competitive Strategy,** now in its 60th printing. Today, most major corporations have a CI function and there is even a professional organization of Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP).

I actually got my start at 18, as a mobile ice cream salesman. Ice cream sales is a winner-take-all business – if you get to a swimming pool full of kids on a hot summer day 10 minutes after your competitor, you sell nothing. A long-standing competitor straddled the routes of a friend who was selling for the same company I did. At the end of each day, we plotted his route until we knew exactly where he was when (this was before cell phones...). Once we had the intelligence, our sales skyrocketed, while his dropped to near zero. He abandoned the route within weeks and we had free rein for the rest of the summer. I didn't know I was doing CI. It was purely a matter of financial survival.

In my first corporate job, marketing aircraft tires, I could predict within 1% the price our competitors would offer, through a thorough analysis of bid performance. My technical team was able to assess the performance characteristics of each tire in our competitor’s line, which enabled us to arm the sales force with the information they needed to increase sales. We gained share every year.

Perhaps surprisingly, the first thing you need to do is learn as much as you possibly can about your own business, before you try to understand the competitor’s. You’re only as good as your ability to impact your business – you can be the greatest analyst in the world, but if you don’t understand your own business well enough to know what intelligence is needed to impact a decision, you’ll fail. And, as you deepen your knowledge of your business, you’ll gain incredible insights into the competition. Faye Brill, who was CI chief of Ryder Systems, Inc., ‘believes that 80% of what you need to know about your competitors is right inside your company.’***

You’ll find this easier than you might think. Consumers and “clients are often happy to provide feedback to soften the blow of losing a contract”**** or selecting another product.

As Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu wrote: “If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles.”

Next: What do You Need to Know About Competition?


*Elix, Doug, SVP, IBM, conversation with the author
**Porter, Michael, Competitive Strategy, The Free Press, 1980
***DeWitt, Michelle, Competitive Intelligence, Competitive Advantage. Grand Rapids, MI, Abacus, 1997
****“Get something from losing,” One Minute Articles (link no longer active).

What an intelligence-driven organization looks like

with Liam Fahey

What an Intelligence-Driven Solution Looks Like

Insight is where the game is won and lost notes that "Intelligence as an influence on decision making has not yet fully bloomed in many companies," listing a number of reasons why.

To address these challenges, today’s most successful intelligence teams have adopted a post-industrial, networked model, co-creating insights with decision makers, not just producing documents, powerpoints and spreadsheets. They build and sustain an intelligence capability that delivers real business results by:

Most Growth Programs Fail - Part II

Most growth programs fail because they require changes to strategy. And changes to strategy nearly always require changes to the organization: new tasks must be defined, new skills built, a new culture must be nourished and leadership must be aligned up and down the hierarchy. Inattention to these increases the odds that a promising strategy delivers disappointing results.

In addition, many companies aren’t fully aware of how far they must go to differentiate new products or offerings. Effecting these changes requires building commitment on the part of those charged with driving the growth initiative.

Building the necessary commitment begins with the creation of a collective understanding of changes in marketplace dynamics: evolution of customer defined value, technology changes, channel shifts, and new competitive strategies. It strengthens as the team jointly assesses and selects the opportunities, builds a robust strategy and identifies the necessary organizational changes. It solidifies as the team identifies the key elements of a go-to-market plan that creates the platform for sustained performance. And the commitment becomes action through follow-up monitoring.

Most Growth Programs Fail - Part I

The operational efficiency programs that have dominated most organizations during the recession actually erode growth capabilities, according to Betsy Morris (New Rule: Look Out, Not In) who writes in Fortune that of 58 large companies with Six Sigma programs, 91% trailed the S&P following implementation.

Thus, simply identifying changes in the competitive space, brainstorming the “right” opportunities and then demanding performance without changing the business model, the management systems, the cultural inhibitors and leadership mindsets throughout the organization, doom many well-meaning initiatives to mediocrity. The shift to growth as a core competence requires the commitment of everyone involved to explore, select and support new opportunities.

A $3 latte worth $506,628???

It is if:

• You save that $3 a day and invest it weekly in the stock market
• You're in your 20s, and continue this for 40 years
• The stock market matches its historical average return of 10%

The power of compounding is amazing. Do the math, here; if you're not familiar with financial calculations, start with 0 for your Present Value (assume you have nothing now); enter 40 Years (if you're in your 20s), compound your interest rate Annually, at a 10% Rate, your Contribution is that weekly $21 saved by not buying the daily latte (discipline counts: you must do this each and every week; set up an automatic contribution into an index fund). Finally, push the Future button.

So, millennials, ask your self each morning, how much is that $3 latte worth?

Knowledge matters.

Dreaming of sushi

Jiro Dreams of Sushi is a must-see documentary about the world's greatest sushi chef, 86-year-old Jiro Ono, the only sushi chef to receive 3 stars from the Guide Michelin. The restaurant, located in a subway station in the Ginza, has 10 seats. A 20-minute meal STARTS at $370, and diners often reserve a year in advance.

Jiro has been perfecting his craft for over 75 YEARS (his alcoholic father abandoned the family when Jiro was 7 and when he left home at 9, he was told he had no home to come back to), yet says "even at my age, in my work, I haven't reached perfection."

Why market research fails - don't start with the customer!

How many times have you seen quality research shot down because a decision-maker said it didn't match what they knew? And despite the reams of data and the quality of the analysis, the nay-sayer simply wouldn't budge.

Marketing and strategy professionals do their best to gather data through a variety of quantitative and qualitative techniques. Despite these efforts, many are frustrated when decisions are made seemingly in spite of the data. And then they double down and do more research, or try a new technique, with the same result.

Brand premium: the difference between a $15 haircut and a $160 haircut

Ahh, brand premium. The holy grail of branders. We all seek it, yet few find it.

I've always been mildly intrigued by the difference in pricing between a woman's stylist and a men's barber. But today as I was getting my $15 haircut at the local barbershop, I decided to do some research. What I found, though, was that prices for men's haircuts - in Manhattan anyway - can approach those for women.

What's the difference between a $15 haircut and a $160 haircut? Turns, out, a lot. Stylist Antonio Gonzales writes that for $160,

How not to write sales letters

Occasionally I get a sales letter that is so bad I can only scratch my head. Here are extracts from two that inspired me to write this post, in the hopes that none of you will similarly ever waste your resources.

The first was accompanied by a slick (expensive) brochure: