Chance Favors Only Prepared Minds

Creating Crises

On January 15, 2009, US Airways flight 1549, with 150 passengers and five crew, struck a flight of geese two minutes after take-off, losing power in both engines. Four minutes later, Captain Chesley B. "Sully" Sullenberger's crew landed the Airbus A320 in the middle of the Hudson River. Aided by first responders, there was no loss of life, and the five injuries and a number of cases of hypothermia were quickly treated.

How did these teams perform such an incredible feat? Was it a miracle? Perhaps. Most commercial flying is routine and pilots rarely experience a real crisis. The FAA reports the odds of a bird strike are one in 10,000, and experts estimate the odds of losing both engines are one in several million.

Yet the crew and first responders instinctively knew what to do. They had rehearsed responses to low-probability, high-impact events in simulated crisis conditions. It's part of their job.*

The chances of an employer going bankrupt in 2012 were 0.007%**, 70 times higher than a bird strike. How many executives rehearse responses to such a high-impact crisis? OK, maybe that's stretching the point. After all, company bankruptcies don't risk catastrophic loss of life.

But what if the odds of business failure were greater than one in two? Writes Harvard Marketing Professor John Gourville, "most studies estimate new product failure rates at 50% or more," ranging "from 40% to 90% across product categories."***

Alternatively, consider the difficulty of sustaining profitable growth. Columbia Business School professor Rita Gunther McGrath writes that only 8% of the 5,000 companies with over $1 billion in revenues grew sales by 5% annually over a 5 year period, and only 4% grew net income by at least 5% annually - that's less than one in 20.****

Why not increase the odds of success by taking a page from pilot training and have teams "rehearse" in launch or growth simulations?

Master motivator Lou Gerstner, who took over an IBM in its death throes in 1993, determined that the organization had the capability to perform incredible feats, if only he could refocus its efforts. Early on, he challenged his senior executives to attack their businesses as if they were their primary competitors, in effect "rehearsing" competitive responses.

Later, in the early 2000s, IBM embedded "crisis" simulation into the strategy process. Executive business unit teams went offsite to confront their biggest challenges, such as reversing a loss or identifying how to grow revenues by an order of magnitude, in response to likely market, competition and technology evolution. To make the "rehearsal" as consequential as possible, the teams had to present their solutions to the senior-most executives in the organization - the stakes were high. As English writer Samuel Johnson said, “nothing so focuses the mind as the possibility of being hanged in a fortnight.” At IBM, the teams had three days.

Organizations can similarly improve results by running simulations focusing on assessing and responding to growth opportunities, marketplace risks, untapped sources of customer value, the next generation of customers or emerging competitive threats.

While each simulation requires a different approach, the key to success is creating a realistic environment - a "crisis" - that challenges existing mental models and addresses the organization changes required to deliver a new initiative (structure, systems, people and culture).

It's hard work, but the results can be significant: IBM's EPS increased eight-fold over the decade following the launch of the strategy simulations, tripling the share price.

As Louis Pasteur said in a lecture at Lille University in 1854, "...chance favors only prepared minds."

*Newman, Rick, "How Sullenberger Really Saved US Airways Flight 1549," USNews & World Report, February 23, 2009
**42,008 bankruptcies in the US in 2012: "Bankruptcy Filings Down in Fiscal Year 2012," US Courts; 6,049,655 employers: "Statistics about Business Size," US Census Bureau
***Gourville, John, "The Curse of Innovation: Why Innovative New Products Fail," MSI Reports, Issue Four, 2005.
****McGrath, Rita Gunther, “How the Growth Outliers Did It,” Harvard Business Review, January – February 2012

You're Not an Island

Cultivating the best talent.

To accomplish your objectives, you’ll need to rely on your team, which requires a combination of recruiting, training and leadership. “Your team is what makes matters most,” says Kristin Hambleton, VP Marketing, Neolane Communications, now part of Adobe. "You’re not an island – you need collaboration and leadership.”

Successful marketing executives recruit the best people they can. 

Kimberly Clark CMO Tony Palmer says, “the smartest thing I did when I started was to go out and hire four or five of the best people I could find in the disciplines. They were people who had a lot of weight in terms of skill set and experience, and that helped enormously. I think that very early on, the organization saw them as a skill set that they didn't recognize, and they tended to therefore be invited in more.”*  Adds Tony Wells, CMO of ADT Security Services, “surround yourself with good people – hire people better than you.”

Then, they build their team’s capabilities. 

Most importantly, says Ted Rubin, Chief Social Marketing Officer of Collective Bias, “teach mid-level marketing execs to speak to the c-suite in a way they understand – learn to speak their language – talk to me about sales / conversion.” Says Wells, “always look to develop people – make it possible for them do the best work of their career.” And Bloomberg CMO Maureen McGuire says “development of people is a daily task…It’s about coaching people through the process, helping them to understand the business and what’s good or bad about the work that they've done at the moment.”**

Finally, leadership is critical. 

“Know yourself, your job, your people, their strengths and weaknesses, says Tony Wells, CMO ADT Security Services. There should always be something exciting going on. Create energy.” Unfortunately, says Karen Masullo, EVP Social Media of Firestorm, “many marketers who move into executive positions tell their teams what to do without soliciting their input – allow your team to help you. Avoid being dictatorial.”

The management consulting firm Hay Group suggests using a variety of leadership styles,*** noting that a poor leader uses a single style, effective leaders use at least four and superb leaders can use six, and know when to use them:

Great sales personnel (and lousy ones)

I love great sales personnel.

As much as I loathe lousy ones.

We were looking for track lighting at the local lighting store, from whom we had bought in the past. Those who've shopped for lighting know this takes some time and, often, in home consultations. After all, it is neither a small purchase, nor one you can easily replace.

What's a smile worth? Redux

In the local supermarket today, two young women offered wine tasting samples. Good location, right at the front of the store.

I walked right by.

Not because of the wine.

Work harder, not smarter

Here's another one: 'work smarter, not harder!'

I hope you've never used this one in a misguided attempt to motivate a subordinate. If you have, you've just told the employee they're dumb. Not very motivational, eh?

Personally, I don't think employees are dumb (and if you have one, how did they get hired in the first place? And in the second place, why are they still with you?).In fact, I think most employees, unless they've been so totally mismanaged that they're completely disengaged, actually try to find the best way of doing things. Simply exhorting 'smarter' work is not likely to get results...

On the other hand, employees may may lack experience in how to get things done, and for that, an effective leader can help them think through options and work plans. But that also requires a real commitment - and real work - on the part of the manager or executive. If the leader puts in the effort, I can almost guarantee the results will be remarkable.

So, if you work harder, your employees will work smarter.